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    Georgia’s Cyclical Dilemma: Brussels or Moscow?

    Yahya Adow Ibrahim

    By Yahya Adow Ibrahim


    Recent elections in Georgia have once again drawn attention to the country's uncertain position between its European aspirations and the imminent Russian shadow of influence.Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and its independence, Georgia has been navigating a delicate geopolitical balance between Brussels and Moscow. Georgia has been regarded as one of the most pro-European Union states in the region; however, the results of the recent elections, the (s)election of the president, and the new administration's decision to suspend EU accession talks until 2028 have led to a reevaluation of the country's relationship with the European Union. As President Salome Zourabichvili departs from office, the question of Georgia's ability to chart a stable course forward remains unanswered, as the country continues to grapple with this persistent geopolitical quandary.



    The political landscape of Georgia is marked by pervasive political polarization, democratic challenges, and societal divisions, with the two dominant political parties being the Georgian Dream, the ruling party, and the United National Movement, the pro-EU opposition.The Georgian Dream Party was established in 2012 and has been in power for over a decade. Its founder is billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who is pro-Russian and formerly served as prime minister. The party's ideological orientation has evolved over time, initially positioned as center-left and pro-EU, but undergoing a shift in its foreign policy stance, leading to a more Euroskeptic and pro-Russian orientation.The United National Movement Party (UNM), established in 2001 by Mikheil Saakashvili, emerged as a major political force following the Rose Revolution in 2003. The Rose Revolution, a 20-day non-violent protest, led to the resignation of Eduard Shevardnadze, the then-President. The UNM implemented a series of reforms, including neoliberal economic policies, a Euro-Atlantic integration plan, and a new approach toward Russia.However, the party became unpopular and lost several elections (2016, 2020, and 2024). The UNM has accused the ruling Georgian Dream Party of democratic backsliding and abandoning Georgia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations.For over a decade, Georgia has been one of the most pro-European states in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, with its pro-European Union sentiment being backed by its constitution as well as the public.An overwhelming majority of the public supports EU integration, perceiving the European Union as more than just an economic opportunity; rather, they view it as a symbol of democracy, prosperity, and security. European integration necessitates more than mere public endorsement; it demands democratic, comprehensive, and sustainable reforms.The recent elections, purportedly marred by irregularities and a crackdown on pro-EU demonstrators, suggest a gradual but discernible shift in Tbilisi's course away from its European trajectory.Georgia's EU integration advanced with the 2014 Association Agreement and the establishment of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), leading to increased trade and visa liberalization within the Schengen Area for Georgians. However, this progress is at risk of being reversed if the democratic regression in Georgia persists.Georgia is serving as a litmus test for the success of the EU's Eastern Partnership policy.The possibility of Georgia obtaining candidacy privileges without implementing reforms could send the wrong signals to other candidate states, such as Ukraine and Moldova.To maintain the progress made over the years, it is essential for Tbilisi to demonstrate its commitment to enacting EU reforms and aligning with Brussels' norms and values.


    Georgia's EU aspirations are confronted with substantial challenges due to Russia's direct and indirect influence in its domestic politics.Moscow has overtly expressed its ambition to exert control over its neighbors, with Ukraine serving as a prominent example.Russia utilizes frozen conflicts to exert its influence over former Soviet republics, leveraging them as bargaining chips in its relationship with Tbilisi. Georgia's ongoing frozen conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia are a means for Russia to exert its leverage, threatening to derail Georgia's Euro-Atlantic integration aspirations if Tbilisi does not comply with Moscow's demands.


    Georgians recall the 2008 war, during which they perceived the West to have abandoned them in the face of Russian aggression.At the Bucharest summit, NATO membership for both Tbilisi and Kyiv was rejected due to opposition from France and Germany.In the aftermath of the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia, then-US President Barack Obama made an effort to revive relations with Moscow.These events remain vivid in the minds of Georgian politicians as they approach both Brussels and Moscow.


    The influence of Russia's trade and energy relations over Georgia is a contributing factor in the current state of affairs.The recent visa liberalization for Georgians and Air Georgia's flights to Russia are indicative of a rapprochement in Georgia-Russia relations.The influx of Russian migrants in Georgia is a testament to the strength of people-to-people connections in the region.However, the majority of the public is not in favor of this development, as they perceive the Russians as responsible for inflating property development and the cost of living. Additionally, Abhazians have expressed discontent with the investment bill that would grant Russian legal entities in Abkhazia the right to own property and land, as well as exemption from customs duty, corporate property tax, and value-added tax.This opposition signifies a gradual loss of Moscow's influence in Abkhazia.


    Russia has utilized soft power, disinformation, and smear campaigns against the EU and pro-EU proponents in Tbilisi. Eurosceptic campaigns propagated and amplified by a section of the political class have sought to undermine public trust in the European Union.Moscow portrays itself as the more pragmatic pathway, offering zero structural conditionalities while demanding Georgia's submission to its geopolitical dominance. Georgia's strategic shift towards Moscow would have far-reaching consequences, including the loss of economic opportunities and integration into various spheres.Georgia's substantial investments in its Euro-Atlantic integration have yielded substantial benefits, and it would be pragmatic for Tbilisi to maintain this path.


    To regain the EU's trust, Georgia must implement democratic reforms, ensuring electoral integrity, judicial independence, and the protection of civil liberties. This will rebuild public trust in the government and accelerate the process of EU accession.Furthermore, fostering political pluralism is essential. The current administration and the opposition must engage in dialogue and put an end to the prevailing political polarization. This will establish a stable democratic environment and promote stability. Georgia must also strengthen EU integration by implementing reforms across all sectors.Ensuring electoral integrity, media, and judicial freedoms is paramount to advance its EU candidacy.


    Tbilisi must also counter Russian influence.The government must combat smear campaigns and disinformation aimed at the EU and its supporters.Conducting media literacy and public awareness campaigns to combat fake news will increase public trust in the European Union.The government also needs to bolster its cybersecurity defenses. Georgia should also reduce its economic dependence on Russia by closely cooperating with Türkiye, Moldova, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. Brussels should not antagonize the Georgian public but should instead view Georgia's EU pathway as long-term despite challenges, and it should increase its engagements with Tbilisi by deepening economic ties and keeping the dialogue open.Georgian leadership should also show willingness to implement EU reforms.


    Georgia's strategic autonomy is being tested as it navigates the EU's capacity to ensure regional stability and the efficacy of its Eastern Partnership Policy.The implementation of EU conditions in Georgia could serve as a model for other aspiring nations and a testament to the EU's success in its Eastern Partnership.However, there is a possibility that Georgian leaders may shift their strategic focus towards Moscow, perceiving it as a more pragmatic approach that mitigates the risk of Russian invasion. Georgia's ongoing territorial disputes with Russia, particularly in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, underscore the potential for Russian destabilization.Historical precedent suggests that appeasement of Russia has often proved counterproductive. Russia perceives the Caucasus as within its sphere of influence and views any shift towards Europe as a threat that must be addressed. Consequently, Moscow is endeavoring to enhance its influence over Georgia's domestic affairs.Georgia's strategic shift towards Moscow comes at the cost of straining its alliance with the West and antagonizing its pro-European public. This shift could potentially lead to a decline in public trust, a weakening of economic and political ties with the West, and an increased vulnerability to Moscow's influence.While maintaining a neutral stance may appear appealing in theory, recent developments in the South Caucasus have demonstrated the impracticality of maintaining an impartial position. Georgia's neutrality is not only illusory but also impractical, as evidenced by Russia's aggression in Ukraine and its destabilizing influence in Belarus and Moldova. Georgia's neutrality is impractical due to the increasing polarization between the West and Russia, which makes it difficult for Georgia to not take sides. Moscow's military actions in Ukraine demonstrate that it is willing to go to any length to exert its influence over its neighbors.


    In response, the European Union and NATO have articulated the necessity for Georgia to align its policies with Western values if it is to be considered for Euro-Atlantic integration. Consequently, Tbilisi is compelled to implement democratic reforms and embrace Euro-Atlantic values.Although not granting Georgia full membership, the EU and NATO have outlined a strategic path for Georgia's eventual accession, encompassing economic and political support, as well as security cooperation. Georgia's ongoing engagement with these profound partnerships hinges on its unwavering dedication to the values espoused by the EU and NATO.However, Georgia's commitment to Euro-Atlantic integration is not without implications for its neutrality. In navigating this intricate geopolitical landscape, Georgia's survival is contingent on its capacity to chart a course that does not compromise its domestic and foreign aspirations while aligning with like-minded partners.





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    Very educative piece

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